静态初始条件下的歼击机中距攻防引导方法决策

在静态初始条件下,歼击机中距攻防引导方法的选择是一个定性与定量相结合的类别划分问题,因此,将粗糙集理论与概率神经网络相结合用于该问题的解决。首先,利用粗糙集理论实现专家知识约简、空战态势信息集压缩,得到最小决策信息集;其次,利用概率神经网络进行概率决策推理;最后,通过实例分析,结果表明决策推理正确,在不确定环境下仍然有效,提高了决策过程的自动化程度。     

区域联合作战装备保障任务分配模型

现代信息化战争是体系与体系的对抗,区域作战联合装备保障成为信息化条件下装备保障的主要方式,实施科学正确的装备保障指挥,进行保障任务分配对于提高保障效益具有非常重要的意义。通过区域作战装备保障任务的特点,依据区域保障要求建立了包括转场时间在内和不同作战方向上作战单元的重要程度不同的装备保障任务分配模型,保证了重要方向上最晚完成保障任务的作战单元保障时间最短和非重要方向上最晚完成保障任务的作战单元保障时间最短。最后,应用遗传算法给出了区域联合作战装备保障任务分配模型的求解方法和步骤,具有一定的科学性和实用性。     

SVM在空中目标威胁值评估中的应用

构建了基于回归型支持向量机的空中目标威胁值评估模型,确定了基于粗糙集理论的空中目标威胁因素,并建立了数据离散化、归一化的标准。将常用的4种核函数应用于对空中目标威胁值的估计,并通过基于网格法和遗传算法的搜索方法找到模型的最优参数。最后通过Matlab对算例进行了仿真验证。     

基于改进支持向量回归机的火炮身管寿命预测

为准确预测火炮身管寿命终止时火炮射弹数,根据射击过程中火炮身管磨损量与身管寿命特性,分析了身管膛线起始部磨损量与身管射弹数之间的关系,提出了支持向量回归机算法,并采用遗传算法进行模型优化改进,得到火炮身管寿命预测最优模型。结合两种类型火炮的身管数据,利用该模型对身管寿命进行预测,并与原始支持向量回归机进行对比,通过分析可知改进的支持向量回归机预测效果好、精度高,为火炮在实际应用中身管的寿命预测提供了新的思路。     

美军维修改革发展研究

维修保障是武器装备形成战斗力的关键要素。随着国际形势和美国国内经济、科技等方面的发展变化,美军的维修策略、维修技术以及维修保障信息化等方面也在不断变革。总结了2000年前后至今,美军在维修保障方面的重大变革,对其发展趋势进行了预测,并结合我军装备保障实际,积极探索切实可行的有效对策。     

Military deployment and international terrorism: do location and mission type matter?

Extant literature documents a relationship between military deployment and the risk of an international terrorist attack against citizens of the deploying country. It appears that deployment significantly increases the possibility of terrorist actions in the home country. In particular, if country A decides to send troops to nation B, then citizens of the former country are more likely to fall victim of an attack carried out by a terrorist organisation originating from the latter country. Contributing to this line of literature, we further refine this relationship by distinguishing between regions where the troops are sent as well as by introducing differences between types of deployment. Our results indicate that missions to Asia and the Middle East are more dangerous than missions to other regions as reflected by the terrorist threat in the home country. Robustness tests do however show that the significance of the location variable Asia is predominantly attributed to the mission to Afghanistan. As for types of deployment, only ad hoc missions seem to increase the risk of an attack, whereas no significant results are found for other missions such as operations under UN and NATO flag. Leaving out the missions to Iraq and Afghanistan however also increases the danger resulting from missions by fixed coalitions. Our results find however no evidence that ‘wearing a blue helmet’ increases the probability of a terrorist attack at home.     

航空弹药供应保障存在的问题及对策

在现代高技术信息化战争中,航空弹药地位和作用日渐突出。在分析了信息化条件下现代战争对航空弹药供应保障提出的新需求基础上,指出了航空弹药供应保障存在的不足,并从航空弹药的储备、管理和供应三个方面分别提出了相应的对策。研究表明,着眼应急作战的实际需要,搞好航空弹药供应保障,提高应急作战弹药供应保障能力,是摆在面前的一个现实而又紧迫的任务。     

利用支持向量机的矢量跟踪通道故障检测算法

为了克服卫星导航矢量跟踪接收机中故障通道对其他正常通道的影响,提高矢量跟踪接收机的鲁棒性,提出一种利用支持向量机的通道故障检测算法,利用矢量跟踪接收机的导航滤波器的新息序列作为支持向量机的输入。支持向量机的输出为通道的状态,根据支持向量机的输出通道的状态来判断该通道是否纳入导航滤波器,用来跟踪滤波器状态值,这样能够有效地避免故障通道对导航结果的污染。仿真实验结果表明:该方法能准确地检测出有故障的通道,提高矢量跟踪环路的鲁棒性。     

Optimal maintenance policies for a safety‐critical system and its deteriorating sensor

We consider the integrated problem of optimally maintaining an imperfect, deteriorating sensor and the safety‐critical system it monitors. The sensor's costless observations of the binary state of the system become less informative over time. A costly full inspection may be conducted to perfectly discern the state of the system, after which the system is replaced if it is in the out‐of‐control state. In addition, a full inspection provides the opportunity to replace the sensor. We formulate the problem of adaptively scheduling full inspections and sensor replacements using a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) model. The objective is to minimize the total expected discounted costs associated with system operation, full inspection, system replacement, and sensor replacement. We show that the optimal policy has a threshold structure and demonstrate the value of coordinating system and sensor maintenance via numerical examples. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 399–417, 2017     

Counterinsurgency Challenge in Post-2001 Afghanistan

Although the Taliban insurgency was internally divided and unable to coordinate its activities in 2014–2015, the Afghan security forces were not able to contain it and steadily lost ground throughout 2015. Until 2015, there had been little effort to develop an indigenous Afghan counterinsurgency strategy, but a sense of urgency emerged after a string of Taliban victories. At the beginning of 2016, it was still not clear if and when the National Unity Government would be able to produce a counterinsurgency strategy and, in any case, the need for a coherent counterinsurgency approach became questionable as the Taliban appeared to be transitioning towards conventional warfare.